Military Strategic Estimate
1. “USEUCOM Commander’s Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee”
2. “Road to War –Up to 2019” in the Caucasus/Caspian Sea Region”
3. “Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia: Security Issues and Implications for US Interests”
Purpose. Update the Strategic Estimate for the Caucasus Region based on notional scenario events that have occurred up to December 2019.
1. The situation in the Caucasus Region has shown signs of increasing instability. Some indicators of this instability are:
• Since 2008, Georgia has not controlled the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions, whose independence Moscow recognized and where Moscow retains sizeable military forces;
• Since 2016, the South Azeri People’s Army (SAPA) has been operating in Azerbaijan. Initially backed by Iranian fundamentalists, it now receives support from breakaway “Ahurastan.”
• Iran has lost control over much of its northern territory. In 2018, an ethnically based semi-autonomous region – “Ahurastan” – broke away from Iran. “Ahurastan” borders the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey. “Ahurastan” declared independence in early 2019. In the same time frame, Iran’s southwest provinces broke away to form the “Republic of Luristan.”
• Azerbaijan, Iran and “Ahurastan” maintain competing claims over oil rights in portions of the Caspian Sea. Ahurastanian naval vessels have challenged Azerbaijani and Turkish oil exploration vessels in the Caspian Sea.
• Beginning in October 2019, “Ahurastan” has provided sporadic cross-border support to SAPA insurgents operating in the border areas of Azerbaijan.
• The Free Karabakh Movement (FKM) attacked the Armenian nuclear power station at Metsamor in November 2019.
2. You are a member of a EUCOM J5 Joint Planning Group. Although EUCOM has not received any tasking from national authorities to begin planning, the Chief of Staff has directed the J5 to update the Strategic Estimate for the Caucasus Region to get the Commander up to speed on the situation in the region and provide the basis for a commander’s estimate, and if necessary, development of plans.
Members of your planning group prepared a draft Strategic Estimate last night that was reviewed by the Chief of Staff. The Chief of Staff indicated that Ahurastan be included in the Regional Study and a third course of action be developed for the brief.
You will complete:
• the Regional Study on Ahurastan (slides 26 – 28),
• develop a third Option (slides 45 – 47),
• evaluate the third Option (slide 48),
• compare the Options (slide 49),
• and recommend an Option to the Commander (Slide 50) .
Requirement. Finish the draft Strategic Estimate.
You will finish the draft Strategic Estimate using Microsoft PowerPoint. You are responsible for completing the slides mentioned above. You can add extra slides if you need more slides for your answers; however, focus only on the topics that are required.
Most of the estimate is provided for you. The draft estimate contains the pertinent information, to include the interests and objectives for other countries in the region.
Submit a slide packet that includes the following:
• an introduction slide that contains your name and date,
• the nine slides that you are responsible for completing,
• and slides for citations of sources.
At a minimum, your PowerPoint presentation should consist of 11 slides. Do not exceed 20 slides. Additionally, you do not have to submit a 1009w writing evaluation form for this assignment.
You may use the online C200 lessons, readings, and references to help you prepare the strategic estimate.
The Caucasus References are the following:
1. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia Political Developments and Implications for U. S. Interests (24Jan13)
2. ICG: Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War (8Feb11)
3. Azerbaijan Recent Developments U. S. Interests (03Jun10)
4. Georgia [Republic] Recent Developments and US Interests (13Jul12)
5. Russian Political, Economic, and Security Issues and U.S. Interests (4Nov11)
6. Stability in Russia’s Chechnya and Other Regions of the North Caucasus: Recent Developments (13Dec10)
7. On-Line References
The National Strategies are the following:
1. Army Strategic Planning Guidance (2013)
2. 2010 National Security Strategy (May2010)
3. 2012 State of Union Address
4. Presidential Release – Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense (3Jan2012)
5. Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) Report (Feb2010)
6. 2011 National Military Strategy (Feb2011)
7. Capstone Strategies
8. CJCS Strategic Direction to the Joint Force
9. 2008 National Defense Strategy (Jun2008)
10. National Security Presidential Directive (7Dec2005)
11. National Security Act of 1947
As you prepare your slides for this assignment, cite your sources where you got the information. Cite your source using either footnotes or endnotes IAW the Turabian style of documentation; do not use parenthetical citations. This includes direct quotations, paraphrases, and summaries of the assigned readings, doctrinal references, or outside sources.
Refer to ST 22-2 Leader Communication (June 2012) for guidance about citations and footnotes. You may also refer to A Manual for Writers of Research Papers, Theses, and Dissertations (7th edition).
You must complete this assignment and all Phase 1 requirements before you can progress on to TASS or ADL Phase 2.
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